A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
